[Member Exclusive] Engagement Programme Series II – Analyst Forecasting Power: The Good, the Bad and the Lucky

CPT/CE Eligibility (A Recognized CPT Provider)

CPT hour(s)	1
PL (CE) hour(s)	1
RBV CPD hour(s)	1

EVENT DETAILS

(CODE: 211116LU-CEX)

Creating News or Piggybacking on News?

Everyday, financial analysts need to make forecasts, some on company earnings and stock prices, others on currency markets or even global economies. Our fellow charterholders make use of all kinds of quantitative and qualitative tools to make predictions.

There are many quotes about forecasting.
“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the forecast.” – Warren Buffett
“In stock picking…and in long-term political strategic forecasting, it’s been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.” – Daniel Kahneman
“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn’t!” – Unknown

At the end of the day, we all know no one has a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future. Yet, we all put in our best effort in crunching numbers, synthesizing data, or looking at sunspots…. to try to come up with the best predictions. Some consider forecasting an art, while others said it is a science, but one is seldom able to extract the “luck” element from doing so.

In this series of webinars, the Society has invited a number of speakers, from the academia as well as the industry, to share with us their appraisals of the forecasting ability of analysts. They have employed different methodologies to evaluate analysts and fund managers, on their forecasting power. Through this series, we can understand how analysts can be evaluated and obtain some insights on how we can better improve our forecasting methodologies.

The 2003 Global Analyst Research Settlement and the recent European Union’s MiFID II highlight a long-standing debate about the roles that financial analysts play in the capital markets—whether analysts generate new information with their stock recommendations or mainly serve other roles, such as marketing, for their employers. Some argue that the vast majority of analyst recommendation revisions follow immediately corporate news and hence contain little incremental investment value. In this webinar, Prof. Edward X. Li, Associate Professor of Accounting, Zicklin School of Business, The City University of New York will share his research critically evaluates this argument and provides answers to the following questions:

• Are analysts really piggybacking on corporate news?
• To what extent do analyst recommendations confirm preceding news? Are those confirming revisions useless?
• How often do analysts issue recommendations that reverse prevailing market sentiments?
• When do analysts issue recommendations? During trading hours or after hours?
• Do recommendations issued during trading hours or after hours contain more information? Why?

About the Speaker

Prof. Edward X. Li
Associate Professor of Accounting
Zicklin School of Business, The City University of New York

Prof. Li is Associate Professor of Accounting at the Zicklin School of Business, The City University of New York. He currently serves as the area coordinator for Ph.D. program. He is also Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School. He teaches financial accounting and financial statement analysis to M.S. and M.B.A. students. His research interests include financial market regulation and enforcement, equity analyst, and corporate disclosures. He has published papers in The Accounting Review, Journal of Accounting Research, Journal of Accounting & Economics, and Management Science. His research was featured on Harvard Law School Forum and NYU Law School Forum. Before joining Zicklin, he was on the faculty at University of Rochester’s Simon Business School. He received his B.A., M.S., and Ph.D. from Tsinghua University, University of Illinois, and Michigan State University, respectively. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and the Certified General Accountant of Canada (CGA, International) certificates.

More details about other EPS Series II webinars will follow shortly.
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Rating – Intermediate

Material presented will have technical elements requiring a working knowledge of the subject to make full use of the presentation.  —

CFA Societies Global Passport Program

CFA Society Hong Kong has participated in the CFA Societies Global Passport Program which allows CFA society members to enjoy local society member rate at selected events like this luncheon.  Members of non-CFA Society Hong Kong CFA Institute societies qualify to attend this event at CFA Society Hong Kong member rates.  Please contact CFA Society Hong Kong at events@cfasocietyhongkong.org to register

Remarks:

1.  This Series is exclusively for CFA Society Hong Kong members only.  Society staff will verify the membership status of each registrant.
2. Upon registration on the Zoom platform, each registrant will be given a unique link for each session, please do not share the link with others.
3. Participants who complete all 3 sessions of Series II will be awarded a Letter of Completion issued by CFA Society Hong Kong.————

Other Details:

• This Webinar is a complimentary event for all members.
• Members will be entitled to receive CPT Attendance Letter at NO extra costs after attending the FULL webinar. Please see below for further details.
• To qualify for CPT/CE hours, all participants must attend the full webinar.  After the webinar, Society staff will verify participants’ check-in and check-out time from the registration system for the purpose of issuing CPT Attendance Letters.  No pro-rata credit hours will be awarded.
• CFA Societies Global Passport Program Eligible
• The event will be conducted in English.
• The webinar link and email confirmation will be sent to registrant upon successful online registration. 
• A webinar reminder will be sent out 1 day before the event. If you have not received the email confirmation and reminder, it is the delegate’s responsibility to contact CFA Society Hong Kong to confirm their place.
• The webinar will be conducted on Zoom.
• Please log in the webinar link 10 mins in advance of the session start time to allow some time to solve the technical issues (if any) and the webinar will start promptly at 7:30 pm.
• For attendance-taking purpose, participants’ names and company names (if any) may be given to the speaker of this event.
• CFA Society Hong Kong will closely monitor and assess the ongoing situation of COVID-19 in the community.  Should there be any changes to the event dates and other arrangements, we will notify participants via SMS and/or email.  Notices will also be posted on Society’s website.  Please stay alert with our notifications.
• The event organizers reserve the right to change the format, date or speakers of the event due to unforeseen circumstances without prior notice.
• In case of dispute, the decision of CFA Society Hong Kong is final, and no further correspondences will be entertained.  
• Photo Credit: horizonssfs.com