[Member Exclusive] Engagement Programme Series II – Analyst Forecasting Power: The Good, the Bad and the Lucky

CPT/CE Eligibility (A Recognized CPT Provider)

CPT hour(s)	1
PL (CE) hour(s)	1
RBV CPD hour(s)	1

EVENT DETAILS

(CODE: 211202LU-CEX)

Skill Detection in Manager Selection and other Nobel Prize Problems

Everyday, financial analysts need to make forecasts, some on company earnings and stock prices, others on currency markets or even global economies. Our fellow charterholders make use of all kinds of quantitative and qualitative tools to make predictions.

There are many quotes about forecasting.
“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the forecast.” – Warren Buffett
“In stock picking…and in long-term political strategic forecasting, it’s been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.” – Daniel Kahneman
“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn’t!” – Unknown

At the end of the day, we all know no one has a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future. Yet, we all put in our best effort in crunching numbers, synthesizing data, or looking at sunspots…. to try to come up with the best predictions. Some consider forecasting an art, while others said it is a science, but one is seldom able to extract the “luck” element from doing so.

In this series of webinars, the Society has invited a number of speakers, from the academia as well as the industry, to share with us their appraisals of the forecasting ability of analysts. They have employed different methodologies to evaluate analysts and fund managers, on their forecasting power. Through this series, we can understand how analysts can be evaluated and obtain some insights on how we can better improve our forecasting methodologies.

The talk will try to shed some light on the manager selection problem and why we call problems like this “Nobel Prize” problems. Mr. Adam Duncan, Head of Investment Science, Managing Director of Cambridge Associates, will lay out an example of a typical manager selection problem and then show how you might go about trying (and failing!) to solve it.

After a detailed exploration of the problem, Adam will show a much more fruitful path for your manager selection research. He will include things like:

1.           How to know if you are taking on a good project or a Nobel Prize project.
2.           Things to watch out for when taking on projects like this.
3.           Some examples of what we think are good data-driven projects related to manager selection and governance.

About the Speaker

Mr. Adam Duncan
Head of Investment Science, Managing Director
Cambridge Associates

Adam is Head of Investment Science and a Managing Director in Cambridge Associates’ Boston office. He is the former head of the Portfolio Modeling and Analytics Group where he oversaw the development of the factor models and portfolio decomposition tools in use at Cambridge Associates. He has also held senior roles in manager research where he focused on investment opportunities in diversifying asset classes and strategies, including CTA/managed futures, alternative beta and risk premia, active currency, and volatility trading strategies as well as discretionary and systematic macro programs. Adam’s research interests include skill and anomaly detection, predictive modeling related to manager selection, and process automation. Adam is a frequent presenter at industry conferences and guest lectures at a number of universities.

Prior to joining Cambridge Associates, Adam served as Director of the Global Currencies Client Risk Advisory Group at Credit Suisse. In this position, Adam oversaw the business in North America, helping clients achieve best execution and optimize their currency hedging programs. He conducted research on topics such as tail risk hedging, strategy selection under volatility regimes, and event risk positioning. Previously, he spent twelve years at JP Morgan Chase, where he held several roles focused on the trading, structuring, and sales of fixed income and foreign exchange derivatives. Adam received an MS from the Graduate School of Industrial Administration at Carnegie Mellon University and a BS in Information and Decision Systems from Carnegie Mellon University.

MC by Mr. Alvin Ho, CFA, Allivision Partners Limited

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Rating – Intermediate

Material presented will have technical elements requiring a working knowledge of the subject to make full use of the presentation.  —

CFA Societies Global Passport Program

CFA Society Hong Kong has participated in the CFA Societies Global Passport Program which allows CFA society members to enjoy local society member rate at selected events like this luncheon.  Members of non-CFA Society Hong Kong CFA Institute societies qualify to attend this event at CFA Society Hong Kong member rates.  Please contact CFA Society Hong Kong at events@cfasocietyhongkong.org to register

Remarks:

1.  This Series is exclusively for CFA Society Hong Kong members only.  Society staff will verify the membership status of each registrant.
2. Upon registration on the Zoom platform, each registrant will be given a unique link for each session, please do not share the link with others.
3. Participants who complete all 3 sessions of Series II will be awarded a Letter of Completion issued by CFA Society Hong Kong.————

Other Details:

• This Webinar is a complimentary event for all members.
• Members will be entitled to receive CPT Attendance Letter at NO extra costs after attending the FULL webinar. Please see below for further details.
• To qualify for CPT/CE hours, all participants must attend the full webinar.  After the webinar, Society staff will verify participants’ check-in and check-out time from the registration system for the purpose of issuing CPT Attendance Letters.  No pro-rata credit hours will be awarded.
• CFA Societies Global Passport Program Eligible
• The event will be conducted in English.
• The webinar link and email confirmation will be sent to registrant upon successful online registration. 
• A webinar reminder will be sent out 1 day before the event. If you have not received the email confirmation and reminder, it is the delegate’s responsibility to contact CFA Society Hong Kong to confirm their place.
• The webinar will be conducted on Zoom.
• Please log in the webinar link 10 mins in advance of the session start time to allow some time to solve the technical issues (if any) and the webinar will start promptly at 7:30 pm.
• For attendance-taking purpose, participants’ names and company names (if any) may be given to the speaker of this event.
• CFA Society Hong Kong will closely monitor and assess the ongoing situation of COVID-19 in the community.  Should there be any changes to the event dates and other arrangements, we will notify participants via SMS and/or email.  Notices will also be posted on Society’s website.  Please stay alert with our notifications.
• The event organizers reserve the right to change the format, date or speakers of the event due to unforeseen circumstances without prior notice.
• In case of dispute, the decision of CFA Society Hong Kong is final, and no further correspondences will be entertained.  
• Photo Credit: horizonssfs.com