[Member Exclusive] Engagement Programme Series II – Analyst Forecasting Power: The Good, the Bad and the Lucky
CPT/CE Eligibility (A Recognized CPT Provider)
| CPT hour(s) | 1 |
| PL (CE) hour(s) | 1 |
| RBV CPD hour(s) | 1 |
EVENT DETAILS
(CODE: 211123LU-CEX)
Skill and Luck in Analyst Recommendations
Everyday, financial analysts need to make forecasts, some on company earnings and stock prices, others on currency markets or even global economies. Our fellow charterholders make use of all kinds of quantitative and qualitative tools to make predictions.
There are many quotes about forecasting.
“Forecasts usually tell us more of the forecaster than of the forecast.” – Warren Buffett
“In stock picking…and in long-term political strategic forecasting, it’s been shown that experts are just not better than a dice-throwing monkey.” – Daniel Kahneman
“Forecasting is the art of saying what will happen, and then explaining why it didn’t!” – Unknown
At the end of the day, we all know no one has a crystal ball that can accurately predict the future. Yet, we all put in our best effort in crunching numbers, synthesizing data, or looking at sunspots…. to try to come up with the best predictions. Some consider forecasting an art, while others said it is a science, but one is seldom able to extract the “luck” element from doing so.
In this series of webinars, the Society has invited a number of speakers, from the academia as well as the industry, to share with us their appraisals of the forecasting ability of analysts. They have employed different methodologies to evaluate analysts and fund managers, on their forecasting power. Through this series, we can understand how analysts can be evaluated and obtain some insights on how we can better improve our forecasting methodologies.
In this webinar, Prof. Kevin Crotty, Associate Professor of Finance of Jones School of Business, Rice University will share insights from his research on disentangling skill and luck in analyst recommendation performance. The presentation will address the following questions:
- how widespread is the ability of analysts to identify mispriced securities;
- how can one account for skill and luck in analyst recommendations;
- what are the sources of analyst ability (information processing vs. production);
- how important is piggybacking on news events;
- what characteristics of analysts are associated with higher levels of recommendation skill; and
- how many individual recommendations are informative.
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About the Speaker
Prof. Kevin Crotty
Associate Professor of Finance
Jones School of Business, Rice University
Prof. Kevin Crotty is an Associate Professor of Finance at Rice University’s Jones School of Business. His research studies the relationship between information and valuations in financial markets and how to evaluate performance of intermediaries such as equity analysts, mutual funds, and hedge funds. His scholarly work is published in Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Economics Letters, and Review of Asset Pricing Studies. In addition to numerous presentations at universities and conferences, Kevin has been invited to present his research at leading asset managers including PanAgora Asset Management, Man Numeric, and Fidelity, as well as the Federal Reserve Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Treasury’s Office of Financial Research. He has received the Award for Excellence in Research at Rice Business. Kevin’s teaching focuses on translating financial theory into practice with an emphasis on (1) equity and fixed income valuation modeling and (2) portfolio construction and evaluation. Prior to his doctoral studies, Kevin earned a master’s degree in accounting from the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina and worked in corporate accounting for IBM. He holds a Ph.D. in finance from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management.—
More details about other EPS Series II webinars will follow shortly.–
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Rating – Intermediate
Material presented will have technical elements requiring a working knowledge of the subject to make full use of the presentation.
CFA Societies Global Passport Program
CFA Society Hong Kong has participated in the CFA Societies Global Passport Program which allows CFA society members to enjoy local society member rate at selected events like this luncheon. Members of non-CFA Society Hong Kong CFA Institute societies qualify to attend this event at CFA Society Hong Kong member rates. Please contact CFA Society Hong Kong at events@cfasocietyhongkong.org to register
Remarks:
- This Series is exclusively for CFA Society Hong Kong members only. Society staff will verify the membership status of each registrant.
- Upon registration on the Zoom platform, each registrant will be given a unique link for each session, please do not share the link with others.
- Participants who complete all 3 sessions of Series II will be awarded a Letter of Completion issued by CFA Society Hong Kong.————
Other Details:
- This Webinar is a complimentary event for all members.
- Members will be entitled to receive CPT Attendance Letter at NO extra costs after attending the FULL webinar. Please see below for further details.
- To qualify for CPT/CE hours, all participants must attend the full webinar. After the webinar, Society staff will verify participants’ check-in and check-out time from the registration system for the purpose of issuing CPT Attendance Letters. No pro-rata credit hours will be awarded.
- CFA Societies Global Passport Program Eligible
- The event will be conducted in English.
- The webinar link and email confirmation will be sent to registrant upon successful online registration.
- A webinar reminder will be sent out 1 day before the event. If you have not received the email confirmation and reminder, it is the delegate’s responsibility to contact CFA Society Hong Kong to confirm their place.
- The webinar will be conducted on Zoom.
- Please log in the webinar link 10 mins in advance of the session start time to allow some time to solve the technical issues (if any) and the webinar will start promptly at 12:30 pm.
- For attendance-taking purpose, participants’ names and company names (if any) may be given to the speaker of this event.
- CFA Society Hong Kong will closely monitor and assess the ongoing situation of COVID-19 in the community. Should there be any changes to the event dates and other arrangements, we will notify participants via SMS and/or email. Notices will also be posted on Society’s website. Please stay alert with our notifications.
- The event organizers reserve the right to change the format, date or speakers of the event due to unforeseen circumstances without prior notice.
- In case of dispute, the decision of CFA Society Hong Kong is final, and no further correspondences will be entertained.
- Photo Credit: horizonssfs.com
